The US employment figures for April dominate global economic and business data this week, but there are also a few important central bank meetings (Australia and UK in particular) and figures from the Chinese trade for April at the end of the week, as well as global industry and services surveys. sector activity.
Strong hiring is forecast in Friday’s US jobs report, with consensus for an increase of more than 900,000 jobs for the second consecutive month after rising 913,000 in March.
Some economists say that figure could exceed one million jobs because of how the vaccination campaign and confidence continue to rise across the United States.
Economists are considering possible revisions to the March figure after similar upgrades for January and February a month ago.
The unemployment rate is also expected to decline slightly, from 6.0% to 5.8%.
But economists remind us that while 14 million jobs had been clawed back in the past year, the total payroll count in March was still 8.4 million below its pre-COVID peak, pointing out that the Labor market recovery still has a long way to go despite the recovery in the economy as a whole, as we saw with last week’s GDP estimate.
AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver says the United States is probably stronger than the report shows.
He said that while the March quarter’s GDP grew at an annual rate of 6.4%, trade and inventories hurt growth by -2.5 percentage points.
Adding that to the data, gross national spending rose 9.9%.
“US GDP is now only 0.9% below its pre-coronavirus high level and growth is expected to remain strong this quarter as stimulus controls are partially exhausted and vaccine rollout makes reopening easier.”
“In line with this consumer confidence rose sharply in April, home prices are rising sharply, pending home sales increased in April and orders for basic capital goods are at historically high levels,” he wrote. Dr. Oliver this weekend.
The central bank’s action includes political meetings in the UK, Australia, Thailand, Norway, Brazil, Malaysia, Turkey and the Czech Republic, as well as the minutes of the March meeting of the BOJ.
All meetings are being watched closely after the Bank of Canada decided last week to start cutting stimulus spending amid signs of recovery and rising prices in the economy.
It’s happening elsewhere but none of the central banks (the Fed last week in particular) seem as worried as Canadians, who have a reputation for leaping into the shadows when it comes to tightening monetary policy.
Global manufacturing and services surveys begin today when April’s reports of the firsts are released in Japan, Australia and elsewhere.
Other waves of COVID-19 remain worrying and continue to threaten the outlook, particularly in parts of Asia and Europe (Brazil and India in particular).
China’s official survey for April was still expansionary, but the pace slowed sharply from March, confirming other data suggesting a slight cooling.
Elsewhere, recent surveys have highlighted how much economic activity shows greater resistance to the US-led virus (the US job market will confirm this again on Friday).
This growing optimism about the outlook is fueling spending and investment, as well as faster job growth, even in the EU and the euro area where unemployment continues to fall slowly, even as the area has entered its territory. second recession in a year in the three months leading up to March. .
Elsewhere in the Fed, the March U.S. quarter earnings season is starting to wane (in terms of the quality of corporate reporting) after last week’s fireworks from Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon (see separate article).
Stronger US economic data was released on Friday, continuing a trend that has pushed inventories up all month. March spending jumped 4.2%, better than expected, while personal income jumped 21.1% thanks to the latest fiscal stimulus.
Base prices (so-called PCE inflation) rose 0.36% in March to rise 1.8% on the year, from 1.4% in February. In April and May, the key rate is expected to rebound well above 2%.
After last week’s meeting, many Fed members are speaking in the United States, led by President Jay Powell. After his comments at his press conference last week, he is not expected to provide new perspectives when he takes part in a National Community Reinvestment Coalition conference on Monday afternoon.
Dallas Fed Chairman Robert Kaplan speaks on Tuesday (he wants the Fed to start talking about cutting spending) and Thursday, and New York Fed Chairman John Williams and President of the Cleveland Fed Loretta Mester will also speak next week.
This week, the latest jobless claims in the United States are released on Thursday with another expected improvement. New vehicle sales in April are expected to reflect continued strength, although there is a shortage of vehicles due to the computer chip supply issue. Other data will include construction spending, factory orders and wholesale trade.
In Europe, the UK and Eurozone manufacturing and services surveys will be released from tonight. The meeting of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee takes place on Thursday.
The Bank revised its growth forecast last month, but no policy changes are expected.
It’s a similar story for the Reserve Bank of Australia which will stand firm and not change its policy. The second statement on monetary policy is released on Friday (see separate article).
Interim reports from Westpac, NAB and ANZ report this week, while his Macquarie group will be final on Friday.
China is on vacation most of the week. April trade data will be released on Friday.
First quarter GDP figures will also be released for Hong Kong and Indonesia.